CBRE’s research analysis of artificial intelligence (AI) and office demand is more resilient than automation fears suggest. In addition, they expect AI-related productivity to favour highly skilled, collaborative roles that use offices more often.
CBRE views labour supply and not AI as the bigger constraint on office job growth. Private-sector layoffs are near their lowest level since 2013, and hiring has slowed more sharply. Approximately 83,000 workers are retiring each month, and reduced immigration has limited labour-force growth.
CBRE puts the slower pace mainly to demographics as opposed to widespread AI displacement. 5% of office-using workers are viewed as highly vulnerable to AI displacement, while 18% are very adaptive. 77% of the remaining face varying degrees of change without being classified as highly vulnerable.
CBRE argues that many workers facing disruption also have the skills to capture AI-driven productivity gains. Fully remote roles account for about 13% of the US workforce and are more susceptible to AI automation.
A Live Data Technologies analysis of two million white-collar workers discovered fully remote employees were 35% more likely to be laid off in 2023 than hybrid or in-office peers.
Workforce varies sharply by market. San Jose and San Francisco rank as the least vulnerable metros, followed by Washington, DC, Seattle and Boston. New York has the least exposed financial-services workforce among major US metros. San Francisco, Washington, DC, Austin, Boston and Denver also have resilient professional and technical services workforces.
Technology leasing is already concentrated in major hubs. Tech companies made up 21% of US office leasing in H1 2026. Nearly two-thirds of that activity occurred in the San Francisco Bay Area and Manhattan. Lease terms have also lengthened for technology occupiers, especially larger users.
CBRE’s argues AI may change where office demand is focused more than it changes the total number of office jobs. Routine tasks are simpler to automate, whereas complex and judgment-heavy work benefits more from in-person collaboration. That could increase space per worker even if employment growth remains modest.
Office-using employment has been dimming since AI tools spread widely in 2023, but occupied space per worker has increased. AI is also supporting smaller occupiers and flexible-space providers.
CBRE forecasts highly skilled workers to be among the least exposed to displacement. Those workers are more likely to value high-quality space, supporting the market’s split between prime assets and obsolete stock.
CBRE predicts the US office market may run out of prime space by the end of 2027 because new construction pipelines have fallen sharply. Its puts overall vacancy at 14.5% in 2031, down from 18.3% with urban hubs leading the improvement.
